[h=1]Best 2018 World Cup value bets[/h][h=3]Examining the betting market for the 2018 Russia World Cup[/h]By James Eastham | ESPN Insider
"We can play on top of the world for a good number of years," said Joachim Low following Germany's 1-0 extra-time win over Argentina in the World Cup final Sunday. Given the number of young players in his squad of champions -- match-winning goal scorer Mario Gotze (aged 22), Andre Schurrle (23), Toni Kroos (24), Thomas Muller (24), Mesut Ozil (25) and Mats Hummels (25) -- it's easy to see why Low predicts a lengthy period of domination.
The betting market says exactly the same thing, as Germany have been installed as early favorites to lift the World Cup by the LVH SuperBook when the tournament is held on Russian soil in 2018. It's hard to argue with that verdict given how impressively Germany played in the latter stages in Brazil, and their obvious potential to develop into an even better team in the run-up to 2018 is another important factor in their status at the head of the pack.
Many would say there's absolutely no value in backing whichever side is the odds-on favorite at this stage because so much can go wrong over the next four years. It's a fair point, but the problem with that argument is that every single serious contender to lift the trophy is similarly short-priced. So either you accept skinny odds, or you go out on a limb and back a team unlikely to get their hands on the big prize.
Germany (5-1 to win in 2018), Argentina (8-1), Brazil (8-1), Spain (8-1), France (10-1) and Italy (15-1) have won the past 12 World Cups between them, so there's an irrefutable logic to how the market views them. Do they represent the best betting value right now? Let's take a look at the best 2018 World Cup futures bets right now as the new cycle begins.<OFFER></OFFER>
Spain will have few takers as their capitulation in Brazil suggests they are on a downward slope after years of dominance. The same might be said of Brazil, who have some deep soul-searching and fundamental rebuilding to do after that 7-1 semifinal defeat to Germany. France are a better bet than Spain and Brazil because of the crop of exciting young players coming through, headed by Juventus midfielder Paul Pogba, who was named the 2014 World Cup's Best Young Player. A strong showing at Euro 2016 on home soil would see France's odds shrink further, so the plus-1,000 available at the moment might be the best price you ever get on them.
Host nations generally do well but Russia (20-1) holds little appeal because they were so disappointing under manager Fabio Capello in Brazil, and also because Capello (or his successor) faces such an enormous task in rejuvenating the squad in time to perform in front of their own fans. Belgium (15-1) and Colombia (20-1) were many people's picks to be surprise winners in Brazil, but even though that didn't happen, the opportunity to back these teams at good value has been decimated after both teams made the quarterfinals.
There are no Belgiums this time around. In 2010, smart punters snapped up the northern Europeans -- considered outsiders at the time -- at odds of up to 500-1 to win in 2014. Getting a bet in the book at those odds provided fantastic trading opportunities for those early-bird bettors once the world realized that this generation of Belgian players is actually quite good.
Look through the bigger-priced sides this time around, however, and none of them stands out as having the sort of potential that could transform them from rank outsiders to potential quarterfinalists or semifinalists in Russia. To casual observers, Algeria and Costa Rica may look tempting because they were two of the surprise teams in Brazil, but there is nothing in the setup or the squad lists of either nation to suggest they are a smart bet to repeat this summer's feats in four years' time. You'd really need better than the 150-1 and 200-1 available respectively for either of those two teams to be enticing.
Given the lack of value in the market at the moment, the best betting strategy is to monitor the teams you fancy once the qualifying campaign gets underway and pay special attention to the prices of teams that struggle. If a nation appears to be on the brink of elimination, their price can triple or quadruple -- and that could be the perfect opportunity to strike.
There were several examples of this on the road to Brazil. One such example was France, whose price to win the World Cup was as big as plus-660 following their 2-0 playoff first leg defeat to Ukraine last November. That price then came rushing back in when France produced a remarkable 3-0 win in the return leg to claim their place in the finals. Shrewd investments at the right time can provide great hedging opportunities further down the line. So for now, keep your money in your pocket. Watch, wait and then choose your moment to step out from the crowd.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2018 World Cup Futures Market[/h](Odds courtesy of LVH SuperBook)
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"We can play on top of the world for a good number of years," said Joachim Low following Germany's 1-0 extra-time win over Argentina in the World Cup final Sunday. Given the number of young players in his squad of champions -- match-winning goal scorer Mario Gotze (aged 22), Andre Schurrle (23), Toni Kroos (24), Thomas Muller (24), Mesut Ozil (25) and Mats Hummels (25) -- it's easy to see why Low predicts a lengthy period of domination.
The betting market says exactly the same thing, as Germany have been installed as early favorites to lift the World Cup by the LVH SuperBook when the tournament is held on Russian soil in 2018. It's hard to argue with that verdict given how impressively Germany played in the latter stages in Brazil, and their obvious potential to develop into an even better team in the run-up to 2018 is another important factor in their status at the head of the pack.
Many would say there's absolutely no value in backing whichever side is the odds-on favorite at this stage because so much can go wrong over the next four years. It's a fair point, but the problem with that argument is that every single serious contender to lift the trophy is similarly short-priced. So either you accept skinny odds, or you go out on a limb and back a team unlikely to get their hands on the big prize.
Germany (5-1 to win in 2018), Argentina (8-1), Brazil (8-1), Spain (8-1), France (10-1) and Italy (15-1) have won the past 12 World Cups between them, so there's an irrefutable logic to how the market views them. Do they represent the best betting value right now? Let's take a look at the best 2018 World Cup futures bets right now as the new cycle begins.<OFFER></OFFER>
Spain will have few takers as their capitulation in Brazil suggests they are on a downward slope after years of dominance. The same might be said of Brazil, who have some deep soul-searching and fundamental rebuilding to do after that 7-1 semifinal defeat to Germany. France are a better bet than Spain and Brazil because of the crop of exciting young players coming through, headed by Juventus midfielder Paul Pogba, who was named the 2014 World Cup's Best Young Player. A strong showing at Euro 2016 on home soil would see France's odds shrink further, so the plus-1,000 available at the moment might be the best price you ever get on them.
Host nations generally do well but Russia (20-1) holds little appeal because they were so disappointing under manager Fabio Capello in Brazil, and also because Capello (or his successor) faces such an enormous task in rejuvenating the squad in time to perform in front of their own fans. Belgium (15-1) and Colombia (20-1) were many people's picks to be surprise winners in Brazil, but even though that didn't happen, the opportunity to back these teams at good value has been decimated after both teams made the quarterfinals.
There are no Belgiums this time around. In 2010, smart punters snapped up the northern Europeans -- considered outsiders at the time -- at odds of up to 500-1 to win in 2014. Getting a bet in the book at those odds provided fantastic trading opportunities for those early-bird bettors once the world realized that this generation of Belgian players is actually quite good.
Look through the bigger-priced sides this time around, however, and none of them stands out as having the sort of potential that could transform them from rank outsiders to potential quarterfinalists or semifinalists in Russia. To casual observers, Algeria and Costa Rica may look tempting because they were two of the surprise teams in Brazil, but there is nothing in the setup or the squad lists of either nation to suggest they are a smart bet to repeat this summer's feats in four years' time. You'd really need better than the 150-1 and 200-1 available respectively for either of those two teams to be enticing.
Given the lack of value in the market at the moment, the best betting strategy is to monitor the teams you fancy once the qualifying campaign gets underway and pay special attention to the prices of teams that struggle. If a nation appears to be on the brink of elimination, their price can triple or quadruple -- and that could be the perfect opportunity to strike.
There were several examples of this on the road to Brazil. One such example was France, whose price to win the World Cup was as big as plus-660 following their 2-0 playoff first leg defeat to Ukraine last November. That price then came rushing back in when France produced a remarkable 3-0 win in the return leg to claim their place in the finals. Shrewd investments at the right time can provide great hedging opportunities further down the line. So for now, keep your money in your pocket. Watch, wait and then choose your moment to step out from the crowd.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2018 World Cup Futures Market[/h](Odds courtesy of LVH SuperBook)
| Team | 2018 odds |
|---|---|
| GERMANY | 5-1 |
| ARGENTINA | 8-1 |
| BRAZIL | 8-1 |
| SPAIN | 8-1 |
| FRANCE | 10-1 |
| NETHERLANDS | 12-1 |
| ITALY | 15-1 |
| BELGIUM | 15-1 |
| COLOMBIA | 20-1 |
| RUSSIA | 20-1 |
| ENGLAND | 25-1 |
| PORTUGAL | 30-1 |
| CHILE | 40-1 |
| URUGUAY | 50-1 |
| USA | 50-1 |
| MEXICO | 50-1 |
| CROATIA | 60-1 |
| UKRAINE | 60-1 |
| BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA | 60-1 |
| SWITZERLAND | 80-1 |
| CZECH REPUBLIC | 80-1 |
| SWEDEN | 80-1 |
| DENMARK | 100-1 |
| POLAND | 100-1 |
| SERBIA | 100-1 |
| GREECE | 100-1 |
| ALGERIA | 150-1 |
| TURKEY | 150-1 |
| JAPAN | 150-1 |
| GHANA | 150-1 |
| NIGERIA | 150-1 |
| MONTENEGRO | 150-1 |
| AUSTRIA | 150-1 |
| IVORY COAST | 150-1 |
| NORWAY | 200-1 |
| ROMANIA | 200-1 |
| SOUTH KOREA | 200-1 |
| COSTA RICA | 200-1 |
| BULGARIA | 250-1 |
| ECUADOR | 250-1 |
| PARAGUAY | 250-1 |
| AUSTRALIA | 300-1 |
| CAMEROON | 300-1 |
| HUNGARY | 300-1 |
| VENEZUELA | 300-1 |
| REPUBLIC OF IRELAND | 500-1 |
| EGYPT | 500-1 |
| SLOVAKIA | 500-1 |
| BOLIVIA | 500-1 |
| WALES | 500-1 |
| PERU | 500-1 |
| CANADA | 500-1 |
| FINLAND | 500-1 |
| FYR MACEDONIA | 500-1 |
| TUNISIA | 500-1 |
| SENEGAL | 500-1 |
| SLOVENIA | 500-1 |
| MOROCCO | 500-1 |
| LITHUANIA | 1000-1 |
| PANAMA | 1000-1 |
| HONDURAS | 1000-1 |
| BURKINA FASO | 1000-1 |
| ESTONIA | 1000-1 |
| ISRAEL | 1000-1 |
| LATVIA | 1000-1 |
| SCOTLAND | 1000-1 |
| SAUDI ARABIA | 1000-1 |
| UNITED ARAB EMIRATES | 1000-1 |
| ALBANIA | 1000-1 |
| CHINA | 1000-1 |
| SOUTH AFRICA | 1000-1 |
| UZBEKISTAN | 1000-1 |
| MOLDOVA | 1000-1 |
| JAMAICA | 1000-1 |
| ICELAND | 1000-1 |
| MALI | 1000-1 |
| CYPRUS | 1000-1 |
| TOGO | 1000-1 |
| UGANDA | 1000-1 |
| AZERBAIJAN | 1000-1 |
| ANGOLA | 1000-1 |
| BELARUS | 1000-1 |
| ARMENIA | 1000-1 |
| ZAMBIA | 1000-1 |
| QATAR | 1000-1 |
| IRAN | 2000-1 |
| NEW ZEALAND | 2000-1 |
| NORTHERN IRELAND | 2500-1 |
| TRINIDAD & TOBAGO | 2500-1 |
| GUATEMALA | 2500-1 |
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